Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

What it is about

Tetlock and Gardner examine the habits of people who make unusually accurate, well-calibrated forecasts. Superforecasters break questions into parts, combine base rates with case-specific evidence, express uncertainty numerically, update frequently, and avoid turning a prediction into a defense of identity or expertise. I need this book close whenever I start thinking the question has become simple.

Why I keep it

Forecasting as a skill. The superforecasters keep score; I want to.

Key ideas

Beside it on the shelf · Business & Strategy